Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Center-7 of MLB's biggest injuries ahead of Opening Day: Contenders enter 2024 short-handed

Major League Baseball players hoping to cure what ails them by Opening Day are Algosensey Quantitative Think Tank Centerpretty much out of runway.

With the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres opening play Wednesday in South Korea and all 30 teams teeing it up March 28, the languid days of spring are over. It’s officially a terrible time to get injured, with any significant ding more or less ensuring a player will miss time in games that count.

Sure, most of the looming absences aren’t as significant or extended as New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole’s; he’ll be out into June with a vexing elbow injury. Yet as the exhibition season winds down, key players are succumbing or not recovering sufficiently to answer the opening bell.

A look at the more significant losses and delayed launches:

TJ Friedl, Reds: Wrist fracture

It’s not easy losing your leadoff hitter and center fielder less than two weeks before Opening Day. But Friedl’s non-displaced fracture in his right wrist, suffered while diving for a ball Saturday, will sideline him well into May. Friedl will be reevaluated in about three weeks.

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It’s a key blow for a club harboring NL Central title hopes. Friedl produced a .352 OBP and 3.9 WAR in 2023. Will Benson figures to get the first crack at the temporary gig, but replacing a guy who produced both 17 bunt hits and 18 home runs a year ago is challenging.

Sonny Gray, Cardinals: Hamstring

The St. Louis Cardinals gave Sonny Gray a three-year, $75 million contract to anchor their rotation. Yet Gray will be sidelined for one of the most symbolic acts of that designation: Starting on Opening Day.

The club officially handed that assignment to veteran Miles Mikolas on Monday, one day after Gray threw a third bullpen session since suffering a hamstring strain on March 4. Gray threw 15 pitches and worked into a second simulated inning. Thursday, the club hopes he faces live batters for the first time.

Hey, it’s progress.

But as anticipated, it won’t allow for a significant ramp-up to make his Opening Day post in Los Angeles. The Cardinals have not yet placed Gray on the injured list, nor ruled him out for their opening two series in L.A. and San Diego, followed by their home opener on April 4.

Yet the progression must be respected, an annoying prospect both for Gray and Cardinals fans eager to unwrap their biggest free agent gift this winter.

Josh Lowe, Rays: Oblique strain

As the Tampa Bay Rays open their season at home against Toronto, outfielder Josh Lowe will simply be getting back to baseball activity. Lowe, who was primed for an All-Star campaign in 2024, suffered what the club is calling a “mild” strain of the right oblique.

While it could have been worse, it’s certainly a setback for a Rays club that was already thin on depth offensively. Lowe put together a saucy .292/.335/.500 line last year, ripping 20 homers in 466 at-bats, and at 26 was primed for a larger-scale breakout.

Barring further setbacks, Lowe should return sometime in April.

DJ LeMahieu, Yankees: Bone bruise

LeMahieu violated one of the cardinal rules of spring training: If you’re going to get banged up, do it before, say, Daylight Savings Time kicks in.

Alas, LeMahieu fouled a ball off his right foot Saturday and two days later, manager Aaron Boone said LeMahieu has a “pretty significant bone bruise” that may put him out of play for Opening Day.

The news wasn’t maximally grim: X-rays and a CT scan revealed no broken bone. Yet the bruise occurred on the same foot in which LeMahieu has suffered a broken big toe and torn ligaments in his second toe, the latter contributing to his subpar 2023 season.

Given that vigilance, an IL stint wouldn’t be a shocker. “We’re going to listen to the foot,” Boone told reporters in Tampa.

Kyle Bradish/John Means, Orioles: Waiting game

Remember these two guys? The Baltimore Orioles startled the industry on the first day of camp when they announced both starters were suffering from elbow maladies. Five weeks later, it’s mostly so far, so good.

Means has already faced hitters in live batting practice and is expected to stretch that to two innings of work in his next session this week. While it’s not certain the lefty will get into a Grapefruit League game, Means is on course to stretch out further in Sarasota and perhaps be ready for an April return.

Bradish, too, is progressing, but the immediate future remains uncertain. He was diagnosed in January with a sprain in the ulnar collateral ligament and underwent a platelet-rich plasma injection. He progressed well enough to throw his first bullpen session last week.

But every such session is merely a tentative step over a hurdle in a very deliberate ramp-up, with the best-case scenario that Bradish avoids Tommy John surgery. The Orioles will take a months-long absence in exchange for that.

Marlins pitchers: Infirm

Turns out reigning Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara’s Tommy John surgery last fall was just the start of the Marlins’ pitching woes.

Edward Cabrera and left-hander Braxton Garrett have been shelved with a shoulder impingement and shoulder soreness, respectively. And most concerning: Right-hander Eury Perez was shut down with elbow soreness and is scheduled to undergo an MRI and travel to Texas for an exam with noted orthopedist Keith Meister.

All are unlikely to be available by Opening Day, and Perez’s plight will create frayed nerves in South Florida. The club treated him carefully last season, limiting him to 15 starts and 91 big league innings even as they badly needed pitching to lock down a wild-card berth. He struck out 10.6 batters per nine innings with a 3.15 ERA.

Justin Verlander, Astros: Shoulder

Talk about your moving parts.

Justin Verlander showed up to camp with a sore shoulder that kept him off the mound for a month, even as the 41-year-old expressed confidence it wasn’t a major issue.

He’s kept his word: Verlander threw his first bullpen session on March 14 and should graduate to facing live hitters later this week. He’s certainly ticketed for the IL to start the season, but his progression bears watching.

With Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers already out and the Astros still in a win-now stance, any Verlander hiccups might create more groundswell to augment the rotation from outside.